FSB Signal Research · Live Experiments

Pending Case Studies

Every FSB Surge / Summo pattern we detect is recorded as a research case study with a hypothesis grounded in 90-day backtest precedent. Watch the market either confirm or refute the edge in real time. No advice — just observation.

Curated 4h Pairs 90-day validation

FSB
SPX500
FSB
USD/CAD
FSB
GBP/JPY
FSB
NZD/USD

These are the pairs the $3 Ignite Challenge focuses on — curated 4h pairs with live gated FSB signals. The full aggregate below intentionally includes the noisier 1-min and 5-min timeframes we filter out for live trading; honest disclosure, not cherry-picking.

Full Aggregate 87293 logged

Aggregate win-rate / R-multiple figures are temporarily withheld pending an independent data-methodology review. 87293 case studies are logged; per-outcome figures will return once the review concludes.

Live Experiments 20 pending

CHOCH_UP @ 1min XRP-USD long
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, upside on XRP-USD should reach target within 20 1min-bars.
Entry1.04999
Stop1.03807
Target1.05297
Past deadline · awaiting next resolver run
CHOCH_DOWN @ 1h XAU_USD short
If the 90-day backtest precedent holds (32 trades, 67.7% WR, PF 0.53), price should reach the target on the downside within 20 1h-bars on XAU_USD.
Entry4,020.47
Stop4,149.01
Target3,988.34
Resolves in 18.2h · deadline 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC
CHOCH_DOWN @ 5min NAS100_USD short
If the 90-day backtest precedent holds (58 trades, 67.2% WR, PF 0.51), price should reach the target on the downside within 20 5min-bars on NAS100_USD.
Entry669.85
Stop681.70
Target666.89
Resolves in 0.8h · deadline 2026-11-10 18:35 UTC
BOS_DOWN @ 1min BTC-USD short
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, downside on BTC-USD should reach target within 20 1min-bars.
Entry72,698.30
Stop74,752.00
Target72,184.88
Past deadline · awaiting next resolver run
BOS_DOWN @ 1min PAXG-USD short
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, downside on PAXG-USD should reach target within 20 1min-bars.
Entry4,021.22
Stop4,038.17
Target4,016.98
Past deadline · awaiting next resolver run
BOS_DOWN @ 1h BTC-USD short
If the 90-day backtest precedent holds (53 trades, 85.7% WR, PF 1.50), price should reach the target on the downside within 20 1h-bars on BTC-USD.
Entry73,143.10
Stop76,096.20
Target72,404.83
Resolves in 17.2h · deadline 2026-11-11 11:00 UTC
BOS_DOWN @ 5min SOL-USD short
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, downside on SOL-USD should reach target within 20 5min-bars.
Entry81.63
Stop85.04
Target80.78
Past deadline · awaiting next resolver run
BOS_DOWN @ 5min XRP-USD short
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, downside on XRP-USD should reach target within 20 5min-bars.
Entry1.04017
Stop1.08263
Target1.02956
Past deadline · awaiting next resolver run
BOS_DOWN @ 5min BTC-USD short
If the 90-day backtest precedent holds (197 trades, 78.6% WR, PF 0.92), price should reach the target on the downside within 20 5min-bars on BTC-USD.
Entry73,193.20
Stop74,804.50
Target72,790.38
Past deadline · awaiting next resolver run
CHOCH_DOWN @ 1min BTC-USD short
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, downside on BTC-USD should reach target within 20 1min-bars.
Entry73,395.10
Stop74,752.00
Target73,055.88
Past deadline · awaiting next resolver run
CHOCH_DOWN @ 1min ETH-USD short
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, downside on ETH-USD should reach target within 20 1min-bars.
Entry2,052.95
Stop2,093.76
Target2,042.75
Past deadline · awaiting next resolver run
CHOCH_DOWN @ 1min SOL-USD short
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, downside on SOL-USD should reach target within 20 1min-bars.
Entry83.37
Stop84.97
Target82.97
Past deadline · awaiting next resolver run
CHOCH_DOWN @ 1min XRP-USD short
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, downside on XRP-USD should reach target within 20 1min-bars.
Entry1.05284
Stop1.07372
Target1.04762
Past deadline · awaiting next resolver run
CHOCH_UP @ 5min BTC-USD long
If the 90-day backtest precedent holds (197 trades, 78.6% WR, PF 0.92), price should reach the target on the upside within 20 5min-bars on BTC-USD.
Entry74,525.40
Stop74,020.30
Target74,651.68
Past deadline · awaiting next resolver run
BOS_UP @ 1min XRP-USD long
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, upside on XRP-USD should reach target within 20 1min-bars.
Entry1.07253
Stop1.05355
Target1.07728
Past deadline · awaiting next resolver run
BOS_UP @ 1h USD_JPY long
If the 90-day backtest precedent holds (35 trades, 48.3% WR, PF 0.23), price should reach the target on the upside within 20 1h-bars on USD_JPY.
Entry158.70
Stop157.27
Target159.05
Resolves in 16.2h · deadline 2026-11-11 10:00 UTC
CHOCH_UP @ 1min SOL-USD long
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, upside on SOL-USD should reach target within 20 1min-bars.
Entry84.73
Stop83.39
Target85.07
Past deadline · awaiting next resolver run
BOS_UP @ 1min ETH-USD long
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, upside on ETH-USD should reach target within 20 1min-bars.
Entry2,089.47
Stop2,056.13
Target2,097.81
Past deadline · awaiting next resolver run
CHOCH_DOWN @ 1h PAXG-USD short
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, downside on PAXG-USD should reach target within 20 1h-bars.
Entry4,027.52
Stop4,071.17
Target4,016.61
Resolves in 16.2h · deadline 2026-11-11 10:00 UTC
BOS_DOWN @ 1min PAXG-USD short
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, downside on PAXG-USD should reach target within 20 1min-bars.
Entry4,025.00
Stop4,065.59
Target4,014.85
Past deadline · awaiting next resolver run

Resolved 50 recent

BOS_DOWN @ 1h MANA_USD unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, downside on MANA_USD should reach target within 20 1h-bars.
Entry0.06770
Stop0.07170
Target0.06670
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
CHOCH_DOWN @ 1h EUR_TRY unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, downside on EUR_TRY should reach target within 20 1h-bars.
Entry53.75
Stop53.94
Target53.70
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
BOS_UP @ 1h GE unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, upside on GE should reach target within 20 1h-bars.
Entry364.70
Stop341.52
Target370.50
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
BOS_UP @ 1min GE unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, upside on GE should reach target within 20 1min-bars.
Entry349.40
Stop348.08
Target349.73
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
CHOCH_DOWN @ 1h GE unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, downside on GE should reach target within 20 1h-bars.
Entry347.77
Stop349.51
Target347.33
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
CHOCH_UP @ 1h USD_PLN unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, upside on USD_PLN should reach target within 20 1h-bars.
Entry3.80082
Stop3.78625
Target3.80446
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
CHOCH_DOWN @ 1min GE unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, downside on GE should reach target within 20 1min-bars.
Entry348.16
Stop349.90
Target347.72
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
CHOCH_UP @ 1min GE unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, upside on GE should reach target within 20 1min-bars.
Entry348.99
Stop348.08
Target349.22
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
CHOCH_UP @ 1h USD_ZAR unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, upside on USD_ZAR should reach target within 20 1h-bars.
Entry16.52
Stop16.41
Target16.55
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
BOS_UP @ 5min GE unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, upside on GE should reach target within 20 5min-bars.
Entry344.60
Stop342.76
Target345.06
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
CHOCH_DOWN @ 15min GE unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, downside on GE should reach target within 20 15min-bars.
Entry352.57
Stop356.36
Target351.62
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
BOS_UP @ 1min PANW unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, upside on PANW should reach target within 20 1min-bars.
Entry325.49
Stop323.86
Target325.90
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
BOS_UP @ 1h PANW unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, upside on PANW should reach target within 20 1h-bars.
Entry295.69
Stop273.00
Target301.36
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
CHOCH_DOWN @ 1h AVAX_USD unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, downside on AVAX_USD should reach target within 20 1h-bars.
Entry6.46400
Stop6.66400
Target6.41400
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
BOS_DOWN @ 15min PANW unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, downside on PANW should reach target within 20 15min-bars.
Entry328.64
Stop330.28
Target328.23
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
BOS_DOWN @ 5min PANW unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, downside on PANW should reach target within 20 5min-bars.
Entry328.64
Stop336.42
Target326.70
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
CHOCH_DOWN @ 1h PEPE_USD unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, downside on PEPE_USD should reach target within 20 1h-bars.
Entry0.00000
Stop0.00000
Target0.00000
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
BOS_UP @ 1min TMO unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, upside on TMO should reach target within 20 1min-bars.
Entry575.65
Stop573.85
Target576.10
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
BOS_DOWN @ 5min TMO unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, downside on TMO should reach target within 20 5min-bars.
Entry532.35
Stop534.15
Target531.90
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
CHOCH_UP @ 1min SMCI unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, upside on SMCI should reach target within 20 1min-bars.
Entry31.26
Stop31.64
Target31.36
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
BOS_DOWN @ 1h ATOM_USD unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, downside on ATOM_USD should reach target within 20 1h-bars.
Entry1.44500
Stop1.51100
Target1.42850
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
BOS_UP @ 5min SMCI unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, upside on SMCI should reach target within 20 5min-bars.
Entry32.27
Stop28.68
Target33.16
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
CHOCH_UP @ 5min AVAX-USD unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, upside on AVAX-USD should reach target within 20 5min-bars.
Entry6.30000
Stop6.56700
Target6.36675
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
CHOCH_UP @ 1h SMCI unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, upside on SMCI should reach target within 20 1h-bars.
Entry29.12
Stop40.43
Target31.95
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
CHOCH_DOWN @ 15min TMO unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, downside on TMO should reach target within 20 15min-bars.
Entry532.01
Stop534.67
Target531.35
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
BOS_DOWN @ 1h EUR_SGD unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, downside on EUR_SGD should reach target within 20 1h-bars.
Entry1.47146
Stop1.47846
Target1.46971
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
BOS_UP @ 15min SMCI unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, upside on SMCI should reach target within 20 15min-bars.
Entry32.28
Stop28.04
Target33.35
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
CHOCH_UP @ 1min ROST unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, upside on ROST should reach target within 20 1min-bars.
Entry232.76
Stop233.22
Target232.87
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
BOS_UP @ 4h NZD_USD unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, upside on NZD_USD should reach target within 20 4h-bars.
Entry0.58632
Stop0.57437
Target0.58931
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
CHOCH_DOWN @ 1h ROST unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, downside on ROST should reach target within 20 1h-bars.
Entry226.12
Stop227.25
Target225.84
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
CHOCH_DOWN @ 5min ROST unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, downside on ROST should reach target within 20 5min-bars.
Entry234.04
Stop236.19
Target233.50
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
BOS_UP @ 15min ROST unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, upside on ROST should reach target within 20 15min-bars.
Entry237.36
Stop222.80
Target241.00
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
BOS_DOWN @ 1min COIN unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, downside on COIN should reach target within 20 1min-bars.
Entry161.00
Stop162.18
Target160.71
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
CHOCH_DOWN @ 5min COIN unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, downside on COIN should reach target within 20 5min-bars.
Entry168.32
Stop169.16
Target168.11
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
CHOCH_UP @ 15min COIN unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, upside on COIN should reach target within 20 15min-bars.
Entry168.50
Stop167.66
Target168.71
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
CHOCH_UP @ 1h COIN unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, upside on COIN should reach target within 20 1h-bars.
Entry168.50
Stop202.58
Target177.02
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
CHOCH_UP @ 5min LTC-USD unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, upside on LTC-USD should reach target within 20 5min-bars.
Entry47.24
Stop46.98
Target47.31
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
CHOCH_UP @ 5min ADA-USD unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, upside on ADA-USD should reach target within 20 5min-bars.
Entry0.16790
Stop0.17495
Target0.16966
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
BOS_UP @ 4h AUD_JPY unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, upside on AUD_JPY should reach target within 20 4h-bars.
Entry113.88
Stop112.20
Target114.30
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
CHOCH_DOWN @ 1min OKE unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, downside on OKE should reach target within 20 1min-bars.
Entry93.00
Stop93.47
Target92.89
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
CHOCH_UP @ 1h OKE unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, upside on OKE should reach target within 20 1h-bars.
Entry90.49
Stop89.86
Target90.65
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
CHOCH_UP @ 5min OKE unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, upside on OKE should reach target within 20 5min-bars.
Entry93.03
Stop93.42
Target93.13
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
CHOCH_UP @ 1h EUR_ZAR unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, upside on EUR_ZAR should reach target within 20 1h-bars.
Entry18.85
Stop18.68
Target18.89
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
BOS_UP @ 15min OKE unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, upside on OKE should reach target within 20 15min-bars.
Entry94.00
Stop90.73
Target94.82
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
CHOCH_UP @ 15min OKE unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, upside on OKE should reach target within 20 15min-bars.
Entry93.03
Stop93.83
Target93.23
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
BOS_DOWN @ 1min HAL unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, downside on HAL should reach target within 20 1min-bars.
Entry32.75
Stop32.80
Target32.74
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
BOS_DOWN @ 1h HAL unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, downside on HAL should reach target within 20 1h-bars.
Entry33.54
Stop33.71
Target33.50
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
BOS_DOWN @ 5min HAL unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, downside on HAL should reach target within 20 5min-bars.
Entry32.96
Stop34.11
Target32.67
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
BOS_DOWN @ 5min HAL unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, downside on HAL should reach target within 20 5min-bars.
Entry32.78
Stop34.11
Target32.45
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC
CHOCH_UP @ 15min HAL unverified
No statistically significant backtest sample for this pair/timeframe. Hypothesis: if the recent BOS/CHoCH pattern holds, upside on HAL should reach target within 20 15min-bars.
Entry35.36
Stop34.03
Target35.69
Outcome under verification · resolved 2026-07-24 09:00 UTC

These case studies are observational and educational. They reflect historical pattern statistics and live market behavior, not personal financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Surging Markets does not recommend any specific trade, position size, or instrument allocation to any individual.